Published research examines how news and supply developments can inform institutional commodity strategies across energy, agriculture and metals

London, LONDON, Oct. 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Permutable, a London-based provider of explainable market intelligence, reported a 24.8% return in a live evaluation of its next generation of large language model commodity signals from the start of 2026 through Sept. 22. The company has expanded coverage from six markets to 19 commodity contracts across energy, agriculture and metals.

Permutable live results · Marked 22 September 2026

Permutable’s commodity intelligence is used by  hedge funds, asset managers, commodity trading desks and systematic research teams. It turns news, company reporting and policy announcements into structured market drivers and directional signals, retaining supporting sources so researchers can examine the evidence behind each assessment.

The company has tracked its commodity signal research live since October 2024. It has published the results and methodology, including individual market performance, each contract’s contribution to the overall evaluation and an explanation of how the evaluated portfolio is constructed.

2026 evaluation results

For the period from the start of 2026 through Sept. 22, Permutable reported:

  • Live evaluation return: 24.8%
  • Maximum peak-to-trough decline: 5.3%
  • Annualized volatility: 13.1%
  • Weeks with positive results: 65.8%

Across the full live evaluation, from Oct. 3, 2024, through Sept. 22, 2026, the cumulative live result was 74.0%, according to Permutable. The evaluated universe expanded in phases, with individual contracts entering when they first received a live signal.

“Last year showed that our approach could identify meaningful changes in a focused group of commodity markets. This year, with our next generation of signals, is about breadth. We can now apply the same explainable intelligence across the major commodity complex, helping investors understand not only what is changing, but why markets may be moving together,” said Wilson Chan, founder and CEO of Permutable.

How Permutable turns news into commodity research signals

Permutable’s technology assesses how developments affect a particular commodity, including potential pressure on supply, demand and costs. Its language models use commodity driver indices, incoming events and source evidence to generate directional signals. The approach separates the tone of coverage from its potential market implications.

An energy disruption, for example, can affect fuel availability and raise costs for metals producers and agricultural businesses. Weather, sanctions and trade policy can change supply expectations or redirect commodity flows. Coverage across energy, agriculture and metals allows research teams to examine these connected developments and the information behind each signal.

The evaluation tests how those signals behave under a defined set of portfolio and risk rules. Positive contributions in 2026 came from energy, agriculture and metals, according to Permutable.

“Investors are looking for a coherent picture of markets that are increasingly connected by geopolitics, climate, regulation and supply chains. AI can help make those relationships visible as they develop, with enough evidence for investors to assess what they mean for their decisions,” said Michael Brisley, chief commercial officer of Permutable.

Access for institutional research teams

Permutable delivers commodity intelligence through a real-time API for integration into research and investment systems. Users can access market signals, narrative drivers and supporting source evidence, then evaluate the data within their own strategies and risk frameworks.

The published research gives prospective users a record they can inspect before testing the signals in their own investment process. Results reflect the defined evaluation approach; outcomes will depend on how users incorporate the data, construct positions and manage execution and risk.

Methodology and performance disclosure

The research is a live evaluation of signals generated as information arrived. The evaluated portfolio can take long and short positions, scales contracts to similar risk and uses leverage. Prices are based on Permutable’s rolling front-month contract series. The cumulative portfolio path adds daily marked-to-market profit and loss rather than compounding returns.

The evaluation excludes transaction costs, roll costs, fees and execution slippage. It does not establish that a particular amount of capital could have been traded at the recorded prices.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index and S&P 500 shown on the results page are long-only price indices provided as reference points. They are not directly comparable with the leveraged long-short paper evaluation.

Permutable is a technology provider. It does not manage money, trade on its data or offer the evaluated portfolio as an investment product. Past or simulated performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Press Inquiries

Talya Stone
talya [at] permutable.ai
https://www.permutable.ai
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